UBS China Wang Tao the real estate market will gradually cool

UBS China Wang Tao: the real estate market will gradually cool down Sina App: Live on-line blogger to guide you to say on the stocks contest points out 60 million Wang Tao: the real estate market will gradually cool down by UBS chief economist Wang Tao China credit line push up asset prices is not sustainable, the hot real estate market will gradually cool down but, the current monetary policy will be very critical. Reporter Athena Chu China – UBS chief economist Wang Tao in an interview with reporters Chinese securities, credit push up asset prices can not be sustained. She believes that since July the real estate market will gradually cool hot, the current monetary policy regulation is critical. Wang Tao said that this year, a second tier city property prices rose faster, there are three reasons: one is the inventory and a few city is relatively low, two is the first few months of this year, credit easing, individual investors to obtain loans easier, and three residents of the real estate market prices are expected to have higher relationship. But the three or four line of the city’s real estate inventory is still relatively high, the future may not move up. From the supply and demand situation, most of the city is still greater than the need for real estate as the main economic engine of the era, the real estate market, neither pressure nor add fuel to the flames. If the local government can increase the supply of land, to take reasonable means to regulate or help. The concern is that real estate investment is down over the past few months, the developers of the future is not so optimistic, big developers invest in other industries, other countries that they don’t think they could meet the eye everywhere, and then earn before such high returns, so diversified, to internationalization, to the development of other business. Developers more clearly than ordinary people supply and demand. Wang Tao believes that over the past two or three years, the economic downturn, mainly in the real estate industry, especially real estate investment down, resulting in a number of cement and related industries fall. Recently, the real estate industry rebound, but the rebound is not sustainable. On the one hand, the house is always someone to live, most of the local real estate is still excess, not only will now sold in the area, but also in the construction area. Potential real estate inventory is relatively high. On the other hand, from the demand point of view, the rate of urbanization is declining. Before we say 20 million year population urbanization, is now 17 million, and the present work is public, is already in the town’s population to give the public service treatment, they may work in the big city, but can’t afford to buy a house, or buy a house in his hometown, so from the Perspective of demand in addition, Shanghai special city like many other city a few years ago, the supply has increased a lot, therefore, the next few years the real estate adjustment is a high probability event, if the control well is gradually adjusted, if the control is not good, is a sudden adjustment. In terms of regulation and control policy, first, the growth target should not be too high, do not overdraft future development. Two is the meaning of urbanization is more social security and services, rather than the real estate urbanization, the understanding of the deviation also need to correct. The three is from the perspective of monetary policy, the current to be reduced相关的主题文章: