The crisis in the cultural revolution and the value standard system of Hong Kong stocks-midd-885

The cultural revolution and Hong Kong stock value standard system in chaos danger and machine Sina Finance client: the most profitable investors in Hong Kong stocks through market mechanism level2 cards today not Hong Kong stocks expected, opened 4%, finally closing down 3.8%, intraday lows hit a new low since June 2012. Probably because the domestic holiday is still the reason, the market trading is relatively light. Visit relatives and friends on New Year’s day, and some relatives and friends also do stock, and how many will talk about the stock problem. During the period, they asked me, saying that Hong Kong stocks fell a lot, on the Internet are saying that Hong Kong stocks have been underestimated, valuations have dropped to the bottom of history, with investment value, ask me how to see, ask me to buy it?. Because they are not professional investors, adapted to the A shares that kind of fast forward, fast out, afraid they can not bear the kind of grinding Hong Kong stocks. I thought about it for a long time, and finally answered them with a popular method of Tai Chi. Hong Kong stock market is now in the ten years of Cultural Revolution, but now it is in the first few years of the cultural revolution, and I can’t tell. Indeed, in the initial fall of Hong Kong stocks, people continue to emphasize the valuation, but the result is not wrong. When we say, 6 times PE is not cheap, seemingly and 5 times and not much difference, but 6 down to 5, it is nearly 20% of the loss, not to mention this bear market, up a point is not easy, fall 10 points is too easy. Finally, I was quiet to think about why the valuation system did not work, most of the reason is because the valuation system has been chaotic, that is, everyone is not to see the valuation of the time, capital security is the first, that is, the so-called "push" again. Hong Kong stocks have been an important channel for foreign investment in China’s economy in recent years. When China’s economy is OK, Hong Kong stocks will be OK, and when the Chinese economy encounters problems, the Hong Kong stocks will encounter twists and turns. Especially when China’s economy shows the possibility of "hard landing", and the expectation of devaluation of the RMB in the world, the fall of Hong Kong stocks into the slag is also unexpected. And now the international financial situation is complex, every major central bank governor’s speech is firmly watched by the market, the international hedge fund sentiment is very strong. And specifically to Hongkong, first of all, the role and status of the market in Hongkong, whether marginalized or the mainland capital takeover theory, there is a lot of controversy. Not to mention the Hongkong local political environment and the past cannot be mention in the same breath, underworld is enough many other investors beat a retreat. A few years ago, the cultural revolution, the Cultural Revolution was smashed everything, all the traditional moral bottom line all no, standard of value system confusion, because of a careless words and wear gaomao criticism are also common. Now the Hong Kong stocks as the year of the cultural revolution, no valuation system, there is only one reason to fall, and this reason can be the U.S. technology stocks may be overvalued, the European bank solvency crisis, is a global commodity crash, more can be the domestic market turmoil and the problem of rmb. Specific to individual stocks, the reason is all sorts of strange things down. However, after the cultural revolution, the great changes in China as a whole are obvious to us, and opportunities are everywhere. There are many people, even primary school culture, as long as the grasp of the theory of history

文革与港股 价值标准体系混乱中的危与机 新浪财经客户端:最赚钱的投资者都在用 港股level2行情 翻看机构底牌   今日港股不出大家所料,低开4%多,最后收盘跌3.8%,盘中低点创2012年6月之后的新低。可能是因为国内仍旧放假的原因,市场交投比较清淡。   过年走亲访友,有些亲戚朋友也做股票,就多少会聊聊股票的问题。期间他们问我,说港股跌了很多,网上都在说港股已经非常低估,估值已经跌到了历史的底部,具备投资价值,问我怎么看,问我可以买么。由于他们都不是职业投资者,适应了A股那种快进快出,怕他们受不了港股的那种磨人。我想了半天,最后用一种惯用打太极的方法回答他们,港股现在就像是处于十年文革阶段,但现在是在文革的第几年,我也说不清。   的确,在港股初始开始下跌的途中,大家不断强调估值,但结果是照跌不误。当我们说,6倍PE是不是很便宜,貌似和5倍并没有多少区别,但6跌到5的时候,便是将近20%的亏损,何况这种熊市,涨一个点不容易,跌10个点太容易了。最后我静下心来仔细思考为何估值体系没有作用,原因多半是因为估值体系已经混乱了,就是大家都到了不看估值的时候了,资金安全是第一位,也就是所谓的推到重来。   港股近年来一直以来都是作为外资投资中国经济的一个重要渠道,当中国经济ok时,港股便ok,当中国经济遇到问题时,那港股就会遇到波折。尤其是当中国经济显现出“硬着陆”的可能时,加上国际上对人民币贬值的预期,那港股跌成渣也算是意料之外,清理之中。   而且现在国际金融形势错综复杂,各大央行行长的每次讲话都被市场盯的牢牢的,国际资金避险情绪非常浓厚。而具体到香港,首先对于香港这个市场的作用和地位,不管是边缘化论或者是内地资金接管论,都存在很多争议。更别说香港本地的政治环境也与往年不可同日而语,旺角黑夜就足够另很多投资客打退堂鼓。   几十年前的文革,文革是打砸一切,所有传统道德法制底线全部没有,价值标准体系混乱,因为一句不慎之言而被戴上高帽批斗也是常事。现在的港股一如当年的文革,没有估值体系,只有一个需要跌的理由,而这理由可以是美国科技股高估,可以是欧洲银行偿付危机,可以是全球大宗商品崩盘,更可以是国内市场动荡和人民币问题。具体到个股,那跌的理由更是千奇百怪。   不过文革之后,整个中国的巨大变化我们是有目共睹,机会充斥着每个角落。有多人,即使是小学文化,只要把握住了历史的机会,最后都成为了富甲一方的富豪。抄底是最容易使财富大幅增至的途径,李嘉诚不就是抄了改革开放的底么?如果说港股价值体系的崩溃有如文革,那么未来重建价值体系的时候,或许就是不一样的风景了。短期看,国内资本管制收紧,国内资金出海投资的渠道还是只有香港的QDII和各种“通”,那么起码几年内,港股地位不会有巨大变化。   港股目前折磨人的局面肯定还会持续一段时间,因为无论香港还是国际市场,大家都在观望,黄金大涨,债券收益率不断创新低,大家都在等待不确定性慢慢褪去,所以大家也把更多的目光盯住了央行行长的讲话,对经济的展望和对资金面的影响。现在,最重要的是保存实力。港股的便宜已经看得到摸得着,这已经是一块几乎到嘴的肉,咬到这一口,那基本上今年的收成就够了。   最后,再怎么容易受伤,再怎么往他身上泼污水,落难的贵族,始终还是贵族,天生丽质,终难自弃,估值摆在那里!没有文革,你一介平民,怎么可能结识那些从北京下放的大右派,甚至成为莫逆之交?! 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: