National Research Center researcher 2016 is expected to stabilize for the better GDP or increase by -www.imust.cn

Researcher at the National Research Center: the cumulative effect of 2016 is expected to steady for the better GDP or increased by 7% in 2012 since the steady growth policy measures, as well as a number of positive factors based on the continuous development, is expected to "13th Five-Year" in the first year of 2016 will be the end of the economic downturn, to steady growth, the foundation to achieve a good start – Zhang Liqun needs to stabilize the preliminary formed in 2015, China economic growth continued to pullback, obvious downward pressure. At the same time, we should also see that the steady growth since 2012 has been increasingly effective in stabilizing the market demand, especially in stabilizing domestic demand. Under the support of economic growth, a drop in the stabilization. The policy effect of steady growth is expected to appear further in 2016, and it can be concluded that China’s economy will maintain steady growth in 2016 with the support of demand stabilization, and the level is roughly the same as in 2015. First of all, consumption continues to grow steadily. In 2015, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 10.6% compared with the previous year, 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous year, the growth rate continued to remain in the two digits, the overall consumption growth steadily, become the basic force of steady growth. Steady growth since 2012, the focus shifted from investment to consumption. Focus on the government adhere to the social policy underpinning, efforts to protect the basic livelihood of the people. Focus on precision employment and precision poverty alleviation. In recent years, the employment situation has been generally stable because the government insists on maintaining employment as the bottom line of steady growth, and supported by objective factors such as the steady development of the service industry. Facts have proved that, in the complex situation of economic transformation, seize the guarantee of basic livelihood of the people, for the realization of moderate and high level of reasonable growth, is a crucial link. The core goal of steady growth, now and in the future should be located in employment, steady income, protect and improve people’s livelihood, which is also a basic economic growth bottom support. Secondly, the growth rate of infrastructure investment is fluctuating, but the trend is stronger. Infrastructure investment grew by 16.9% in 2015, and the growth rate dropped by 3.3 percentage points over the previous year, mainly because of a large drop in railway investment. However, the investment in urban public facilities and the growth rate of water conservancy investment remain at a high level, indicating that the policy effect of strengthening infrastructure construction is constantly emerging. It is expected that the level of infrastructure investment will rise steadily in 2016, and the stabilizing effect on investment growth will be further enhanced. Third, the real estate market continues to pick up, real estate investment growth trend is expected to change. Based on the above analysis, the steady growth policy plays a more and more important role in stabilizing consumption and stabilizing investment, and the basic growth of domestic demand is basically established. Despite the 2015 export growth of -2.8%, the situation of external demand is more severe than expected, but the signs of China’s economic growth are still beginning to show the influence of domestic demand. Adjust the structure to the way has made positive progress, but the supply side issues are still prominent in maintaining stability of the general work guideline under the guidance of "12th Five-Year" period of structural adjustment and development has made positive progress. The three industrial structure and demand structure have shown positive changes, and the activities of survival and elimination of the fittest of enterprises regulated by the market continue to advance, and the enterprises are divided

国研中心研究员:2016有望稳中向好 GDP或增7%   ■在2012年以来稳增长政策措施的累积效果,以及多项积极因素不断发展的基础上,预计“十三五”第一年的2016年经济将结束下行,转为平稳增长,实现良好开局   □ 张立群   需求企稳的基础初步形成   2015年,中国经济增速继续回调,下行压力比较明显。与此同时也要看到,自2012年开始的稳增长工作,在稳定市场需求特别是稳定国内需求方面的成效日益显现。受其支持,经济增长降中趋稳。稳增长的政策效果预计在2016年会进一步显现,据此可以认为,在需求企稳的支持下,2016年中国经济将保持平稳增长,水平与2015年大体相当。   首先,消费持续平稳增长。2015年社会消费品零售总额同比实际增长10.6%,较上年降低0.3个百分点,增速持续保持在两位数,消费总体平稳增长,成为稳增长的基础性力量。2012年以来的稳增长,着力点从投资更多转向消费。集中表现在政府坚持社会政策托底,全力保障基本民生。重点抓住精准就业和精准扶贫。由于政府坚持把保就业作为稳增长的底线,加上服务业发展平稳等客观因素支持,近年来就业形势大体稳定。事实证明,在经济转型的复杂形势下,抓住保障基本民生这个龙头,对于实现中高水平的合理增长,是一个至关重要的环节。稳增长的核心目标,现在和未来都应定位于保就业、稳收入、保障和改善民生,这也是经济增长筑底的基础性支撑。   其次,基础设施投资增速虽有波动,但势头趋强。2015年基础设施投资同比增长16.9%,增速较上年回落3.3个百分点,主要因为铁路投资回落幅度较大。但城市公共设施投资、水利投资增速都保持在较高水平,表明增强基础设施建设的政策效果不断显现。预计基础设施投资水平在2016年将稳中有升,对投资增长的稳定作用会进一步增强。   第三,房地产市场销售持续回暖,房地产投资增速回落态势有望改变。   综合以上分析,稳增长政策在稳定消费、稳定投资方面的效果日益明显,内需平稳增长基础初步建立。尽管2015出口增长-2.8%,外需形势比预期严峻,但受内需主导的作用,中国经济增速企稳迹象仍然开始显露。   调结构、转方式取得积极进展,但供给侧问题仍然突出   在稳中求进工作总基调引导下,“十二五”期间结构调整和发展方式转变取得积极进展。三次产业结构、需求结构出现积极变化,市场调节的企业优胜劣汰活动持续推进,企业分化情况日益明显;产业结构调整持续深入,目前上游钢铁、水泥、煤炭等行业的结构性调整全面展开。与此同时,在货币政策的配合下,资金和债务链条并未发生普遍断裂。此外,股市泡沫和风险得到控制。   市场对总供给与总需求关系及其相互结构的调节总是表现为事后的。需求水平和结构变化了,必然要通过市场调节供给水平和结构。市场竞争对企业的优胜劣汰是协调供求关系、保持经济健康平稳发展必不可少的条件。面对发展环境变化,确实有不少企业主动调整转型并取得积极成效,但也有不少企业,依靠地方性政策优惠和过度保护、依靠降低产品质量标准、减少环保投入等获得不正当的竞争优势。   综合以上分析,可以认为中国经济在错综复杂的国内外形势下,正在不断稳固需求增长的基础,也在通过市场作用促进结构调整和发展方式转变。随着这一过程的深入,矛盾和风险也在蓄积。当前稳增长、调结构、转方式已经到了爬坡过坎的关键时刻。   2016年中国经济有望结束下行,转为 平稳增长   2016年世界经济预计将继续呈现弱复苏的增长态势。受美联储加息、资本外流和相关改革滞后的影响,新兴发展国家经济增长仍存在较多不确定因素,经济恢复势头脆弱。美国经济预计将继续缓慢恢复,欧洲经济回稳态势预计比较明显,日本经济困难有所增加。从国内情况看,在2012年以来稳增长政策措施的累积效果,以及多项积极因素不断发展的基础上,中国经济增长将触底企稳,GDP全年有望实现7%左右的增长,经济结构调整和改革步伐加快,“十三五”将实现良好开局。   1、尽管世界银行和IMF调低了对中国经济和全球经济增长的预测值,但一致认为2016年美国经济仍将呈恢复态势,欧洲经济尽管困难较多,预计仍然会保持恢复性增长;新兴经济体正在进行结构调整,增长水平预计有所降低,分化趋势明显。综合看,2016年世界经济仍呈恢复态势。在这一形势下,综合考虑国际贸易保护抬头、国际市场竞争加剧、我国出口企业综合竞争力水平提高等因素,预计出口增速将低位企稳。   2、投资增长将大体趋稳,2016年投资增长率预计为11%左右。首先,房地产投资增速回落态势将结束。与城镇化进程特别是以人为中心的新型城镇化联系,预计大城市房地产市场销售将保持平稳增长,房地产去库存活动效果逐步显现,中小城市房地产销售也会有所好转。在这些因素支持下,预计房地产投资增速在下半年将底部回升。新型城镇化、“一带一路”建设等,预计将推动基础设施投资水平稳中有升。在市场需求拉动和过剩产能加快调整的支持下,预计制造业投资增速稳中趋升。综合分析,全年投资名义增长预计在11%左右。   3、消费继续保持平稳增长,2016年消费实际增长率预计为10.5%左右。近年来保就业的政策效果比较明显,尽管过剩产能调整和困难企业退出会对局部就业产生冲击,但总的就业形势预计仍将比较平稳。此外房地产市场恢复平稳增长、汽车市场预计也会出现阶段性恢复,其对消费的负面影响预计会转为正面支持。综合这些情况,预计2016年消费实际增长率为10.5%左右。   综合需求因素分析,预计2016年经济增长率在7%左右,CPI涨幅在2%左右。综合以上分析,预计“十三五”第一年经济将结束下行,转为平稳增长。   此外,我们必须把稳需求、稳增长与推进供给侧结构性改革,与转方式、调结构紧密结合起来,通过提高企业、产业以及整个供给体系对发展环境变化的适应能力,加快把经济运行推入健康可持续的发展新轨道。   (作者系国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究员)THE_END 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: