Debt continued upward difficult, short term wide shocks-81sese.com

The difficulty of short-term debt continue upward stock fluctuated – reporter Wang Jiao in February 16th, bond yields continue upward trend, bond futures prices also fell ended, a period of 5 years, 10 years the main contract fell 0.19%, 0.29%. At the same time, investors began to shift positions to replace the month. Market participants pointed out that in January the overall financial data to the good, so that the interest rate debt long end pressure, the overall face of loose capital, short debt demand environment is acceptable. Overall, the RMB exchange rate fluctuations, monetary policy constraints, reverse repo concentrated maturity, local debt supply pressure and other uncertainties, market sentiment is cautious, the debt continued upward difficult, short-term shocks continue to be arranged at a high level. On Tuesday, treasury bond futures markets collectively declined under the repression of the integer mark. The 5 year bond futures contract TF1603 opened at 100.99 yuan, after the concussion, the lowest price fell to 100.78 yuan, closing at 100.815 yuan, down 0.19% compared with the previous day settlement price; 10 year bond futures contract T1603 opened at 100.655 yuan, the lowest intraday probe to 100.31 yuan, to close at 100.360 yuan, compared with the previous day settlement price fell 0.29%. From the perspective changes positions, the debt market shift positions for the month ahead, yesterday TF1603 TF1606 positions to reduce the 1823 hand positions increased 1422 hands, five year bond positions to reduce the 343 total to 32055 hand in hand; T1603 positions to reduce the 1131 hand T1606 hand positions increased by 2039, ten year bonds total 1022 hand positions increased to 40637 hand. Yesterday’s debt market overall turnover changed little. Ruida futures pointed out that, on the one hand, the central bank opened the market yesterday for 30 billion and 7 days reverse repurchase, the bid rate of 2.25%, unchanged from the previous, after the festival routine capital reflux, the overall capital level remained stable. On the other hand, the central bank data released January financial data than expected, loans and financing agency single month has reached a record high, the growth rate of M2 also increased, but the high M1 indicates that many enterprise funds did not enter the entity, liquidity has been loose, diminishing marginal benefit of broad. The bond market sentiment is extremely cautious, the debt over compensatory growth market fell sharply. In January after the release of strong financial data, bond market pressure yesterday, CDB tender 7 year fixed rate bonds bid yield of 3.2576%, significantly higher than the two level market. In the two market, the latest interest rate of the national open active coupon 150218 was 3.1500% 3.1300% in the past 10 years, which was 3.1000% 3.0800% at the end of the day. The short-term stock fluctuated analysts pointed out that bond yields continued to rebound, the day before the end of term debt compensatory growth market fell sharply, the bond market showed obvious pressure. On the one hand, with the global financial market stabilized, the risk aversion has cooled; on the other hand, with the reverse repurchase expires, liquidity or volatility, while the impact of local debt supply comes; this theory

期债继续上行难度较大 短期料宽幅震荡   □本报记者 王姣   2月16日,债券收益率延续上行态势,国债期货价格亦普跌收场,5年期、10年期主力合约分别下跌0.19%、0.29%。与此同时,投资者开始提前移仓换月。市场人士指出,1月金融数据整体向好,令利率债长端承压,资金面整体宽松环境下短债需求尚可。总体来看,人民币汇率波动、货币政策受限、逆回购集中到期、地方债供给压力等不确定性因素较多,市场情绪偏于谨慎,期债继续上行难度较大,短期料在高位延续震荡整理。   期债回吐涨幅   本周二,国债期货市场在整数关口的压制下集体走低。5年期国债期货主力合约TF1603开盘报100.99元,盘中震荡走低,最低价落至100.78元,尾盘收于100.815元,较上日结算价下跌0.19%;10年期国债期货主力合约T1603开盘报100.655元,盘中最低探至100.31元,截至收盘报100.360元,较上日结算价下跌0.29%。   从持仓变动来看,期债市场的移仓换月已提前进行,昨日TF1603持仓减少1823手,TF1606持仓增加1422手,五年期国债总持仓减少343手至32055手;T1603持仓减少1131手,T1606持仓增加2039手,十年期国债总持仓增加1022手至40637手。昨日期债市场总体成交变动不大。   瑞达期货指出,一方面,央行昨日公开市场进行300亿7天期逆回购,中标利率2.25%,与前次持平,节后惯例资金回流,整体资金面保持平稳。另一方面,央行公布的数据显示1月份金融数据高于预期,贷款和社融单月增量都创了历史新高,M2增速也有所回升,但M1高企显示很多企业资金并未进入实体,资金面已经较宽松,量宽边际效益递减。债市情绪极为谨慎,期债结束前日补涨行情大幅下挫。   在强劲的1月份金融数据发布后,现券市场承压,国开行昨日招标的7年期固息债中标收益率为3.2576%,明显高于二级市场。二级市场上,昨日剩余期限近10年的国开活跃券150218最新收益率报价为3.1500% 3.1300%,上日尾盘为3.1000% 3.0800%。   短期料宽幅震荡   分析人士指出,现券收益率持续反弹,期债结束前日补涨行情大幅下挫,显示当前债市明显承压。一方面,随着全球金融市场的企稳,避险情绪有所降温;另一方面,随着逆回购陆续到期,流动性或面临波动,同时地方债供给冲击来临;此外,考虑到年报披露后将会面临大批债券评级下调,信用风险的爆发也将对债市产生流动性冲击。短期来看,预计债市将延续宽幅震荡。   华创证券在最新研报中指出,全球避险情绪继续下降,风险偏好继续回升,避险情绪带动的债券市场利率下行已经结束,因此需要警惕利率的再度回升的压力。此外,短期内人民币出现强劲升值,但是不同的升值原因对市场的影响不同。如果是因为央行干预导致的升值,汇率对利率的约束将更为明显。   国泰君安证券则认为,汇率贬值预期大幅减弱甚至出现阶段性升值,使得人民币资产的流动性压力减轻,叠加经济持续疲弱,债券收益率可能重新出现明显的下行,不排除短期创下年内新低的可能。   具体到期债策略,中州期货指出,国债期货上行动能较弱难以形成有效突破,短期维持震荡整理的可能性加大,由于上方平台压制较强,稳健投资者以短线操作为宜。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: